3.13 Nickel Morning Meeting Minutes
Refined Nickel: SMM March 12: Spot premiums/discounts: The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan No.1 nickel was 1,200-1,300 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 1,250 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The premium/discount quotation range for Russian nickel was -200 to 0 yuan/mt, with an average discount of -100 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Futures: Nickel prices rose after opening today. As of 11:30, the closing price was 132,550 yuan/mt, up 0.20% from the previous trading day's settlement price, with a high of 132,780 yuan/mt. Spot premiums/discounts: Jinchuan brand nickel continued to decline by 50 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders' strategy of lowering prices to promote transactions had limited success, and end-users remained cautious. From a technical and market sentiment perspective, SHFE nickel futures contracts fluctuated upward, with sentiment still outweighing fundamentals in the short term. Price spread with nickel sulphate: Today, nickel briquette prices were 131,200-131,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 131,350 yuan/mt, up 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Nickel sulphate remained at a discount to refined nickel.
Nickel Sulphate: March 12, SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 27,332 yuan/mt. The quotation range for battery-grade nickel sulphate was 27,280-27,980 yuan/mt, with the average price up WoW. Cost side, LME nickel prices fluctuated at highs in the short term. Meanwhile, Congo's suspension of cobalt exports led to a sharp rise in cobalt prices, pushing up the cobalt coefficient in MHP. Additionally, MHP sellers' sentiment to stand firm on quotes was strong, and the MHP coefficient continued to rise, with some traders halting quotations. Nickel sulphate costs are expected to rise further. Demand side, last week, due to a significant increase in cobalt sulphate prices, precursor plants suspended quotations for precursors, leading to cautious raw material procurement. This slowed the procurement pace of nickel salts by precursor plants at traditional procurement periods, but demand remained. Supply side, due to rising raw material procurement prices, nickel salt producers' sentiment to stand firm on quotes strengthened. Comprehensive analysis suggests that, considering market demand and cost-driven sentiment, nickel salt prices are expected to rise further in the short term.
Nickel Pig Iron (NPI): March 12, SMM 8-12% high-grade NPI average price was 1,000 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), up 2.5 yuan/mtu from the previous working day. Supply side, domestically, as the Philippines' rainy season nears its end, nickel ore output remains tight, and ore prices are stable, with weak smelter production driving low output. In Indonesia, some production lines in major producing areas have not significantly recovered, and ore output has fallen short of expectations, keeping overall output stable. Demand side, stainless steel production schedules are expected to continue rising, and the economic viability of raw materials has weakened due to rising stainless steel scrap prices, leading to optimistic demand for high-grade NPI. In the short term, strong cost support and tightening supply and demand will keep prices generally stable with a slight rise.
Stainless Steel: March 12, SMM survey: Stainless steel market prices continued to rise. Futures: The most-traded contract 2505 fluctuated around 13,490 yuan/mt in early trading, then jumped to 13,550 yuan/mt, showing a significant increase. As of 10:30, SS2505 was quoted at 13,490 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan. In Wuxi, 304/2B spot premiums/discounts ranged from -120 to 200 yuan/mt. Spot market prices rose, with steel mills and traders firming up quotes, generally raising prices by 50-100 yuan/mt. Actual transaction prices for 300 series rose by 20-50 yuan/mt. Market sentiment was bullish, with spot traders actively selling and restocking, but downstream enterprises remained cautious, only restocking as needed. In Wuxi, stainless steel inquiries increased, low-priced resources decreased, and merchants stabilized or raised prices, with 300 and 400 series seeing varying degrees of price increases. In Foshan, spot prices were stable with a slight rise, but transactions remained sluggish. Downstream merchants lacked confidence in the rise, with limited macro stimulus, and procurement remained cautious.
Nickel Ore: Last week, FOB prices for medium and high-grade nickel ore in the Philippines pulled back after a surge. In the low-nickel, high-iron market, as the Philippines' rainy season nears its end, mines have started offering March shipments, with current FOB transaction prices loosening compared to pre-rainy season levels. For medium and high-grade nickel ore, influenced by rising Indonesian ore prices and continuous increases in nickel pig iron prices, Philippine mines' sentiment to stand firm on quotes remained, but limited acceptance of high-priced ore by domestic nickel pig iron plants led to a slight decrease in medium-grade nickel ore tender prices during the week. Supply side: As the rainy season gradually ends in major southern mining areas, Philippine shipments are expected to increase. Demand side: Continuous increases in nickel pig iron prices have brought some profit recovery, but nickel pig iron plants' losses continue, limiting acceptance of high-priced ore offered in previous weeks. Currently, just-in-time restocking is the main strategy. Port inventories continued to destock. Ocean freight rates: Some rates reached $11/mt. As the rainy season ends in major southern mining areas, shifts in shipping locations may push up ocean freight rates. Comprehensive analysis suggests that, influenced by various factors, Philippine nickel ore prices may pull back after surging in previous weeks, remaining in the doldrums. Current market transaction prices: For pyrometallurgical ore, mainstream premium prices for Indonesian ore in Sulawesi Island were $19-20/wmt. SMM Indonesia's local laterite nickel ore 1.2% (delivery-to-factory price) ranged from $25.5 to $27.5/wmt, up $0.5/wmt WoW, up 1.8% MoM. SMM Indonesia's local laterite nickel ore 1.6% (delivery-to-factory price) ranged from $46.5 to $51.5/wmt, up $0.4/wmt WoW, up 0.9% MoM. Pyrometallurgical ore continued to rise, but the increase narrowed compared to February. Supply: In March, the rainy season in Sulawesi, Indonesia's main mining area, will gradually end, and Indonesian nickel ore supply is expected to increase. However, downstream smelters' just-in-time procurement demand remains, and the Ramadan period in March may affect supply around Eid al-Fitr. Demand side: Mid-tier smelters have just-in-time procurement needs this month, so demand support remains. Inventories: Mid-tier pyrometallurgical enterprises generally maintain less than two months of inventory, and restocking sentiment in March remains high, driving market transaction activity. Hydrometallurgical ore supply remains tight this year, with current delivery-to-factory prices for large K hydrometallurgical ore around $26/wmt. With the ramp-up and commissioning of MHP projects this year, downstream demand is expected to increase. However, with limited quotas, mines tend to prioritize higher-margin pyrometallurgical ore, reducing hydrometallurgical ore sales, leading to faster price increases for hydrometallurgical ore recently. Follow-up attention: The impact of the HPM price for the second half of March, to be announced on the 15th, on Indonesian nickel ore prices, and the actual circulation of local ore after the rainy season ends. Additionally, the new policy issued by Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources this week adjusted the HPM pricing method. Although the policy does not directly affect nickel smelting enterprises, it has disturbed market sentiment. Comprehensive analysis suggests that Indonesian local ore prices will remain stable with a slight rise in March, with expected increases in upstream shipments and sustained demand. However, due to tight overall nickel ore supply, subsequent absolute prices for Indonesian nickel ore are expected to rise, but the pace may slow.