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[US Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectations Weaken, US Dollar Index Rises, Copper Prices Open Lower] Macro-wise, US Fed's Goolsbee reiterated support for further interest rate cuts and expressed openness to acting at a slower pace. As the market expects fewer interest rate cuts by the US Fed next year, the US dollar index has rebounded, putting pressure on copper prices.

On September 23, BYD announced the simultaneous market launch of two new compact SUVs: the Sealion 05 DM-i and the second-generation Song Pro DM-i.

Used in the production of iron and steel, coking coal — also known as metallurgical coal — is a key raw material. It differs from thermal coal, which is primarily utilized for electricity generation. Coking coal has special characteristics that allow it to be heated at high temperatures in the absence of oxygen, whereby it is transformed into a porous carbon-rich material briquetting which are integral for steelmaking. The creation of this material is enhanced by coking, a process that allows the properties of metallurgical coke to reach their full potential and serves as a reducing agent in the blast furnace where iron ore can be transformed into crude iron.

According to the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported 15.0007 million mt of bauxite in July 2024, up 12.49% MoM. This was also up 16.50% YoY, marking another historical high for monthly imports.

According to SMM statistics, China's production of ternary cathode materials in H1 2024 was 330,000 mt, up 13.8% YoY from 290,000 mt in H1 2023, with a capacity utilisation rate of around 40%.

Copper prices have been rising since March 13 following a series of news about "possible production cuts by Chinese smelters." During this period, geopolitical factors, the US dollar trend, favourable macro front in China, and the COMEX short squeeze event pushed copper prices to a historical high in May. As bullish funds retreated from high levels and downstream operations suffered under high copper prices, leading to negative feedback on consumption, copper prices began to decline gradually from June. In early August, the market briefly traded on recession logic, with LME copper falling to $8,714/mt, then rebounding slightly to $9,200/mt. From June to August, during the continuous decline in copper prices, SMM copper cathode social inventory showed a significant destocking trend, but global visible inventory continued to build up.

The "January Red" of the auto market has seen a sharp drop in lithium prices, reducing costs for car companies. Despite fierce competition, BYD continues to lead among new energy car companies. Other new forces such as NIO, Leap Motor, and Xpeng are also performing well. The car price war, which started in 2023, is continuing after the Chinese New Year holiday, with companies like Tesla, Lynk & Co, and Volkswagen offering discounts. The decline in lithium prices has provided space for overall cost reductions for car companies. As the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the market increases, the traditional fuel car market is shrinking, leading to more intense price competition. The China Passenger Car Association expects the price war to continue throughout the year.

oday the most active industrial silicon contract (2404) opened at 13,370 yuan/ton and closed at 13,275 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.26%; the highest price was 13,385 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,260 yuan/ton; 54,886 lots were traded, an increase of 19,218 lots from the previous trading day; open interest was 90,751 lots, an increase of 48,380 lots from the previous trading day.

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